Transport barometer: Freight surplus in the third quarter

Immense increase in offers


Erkrath, 2015-10-13 - In the third quarter of 2015, TimoCom's transport barometer is on the bright side with an exemplary freight to vehicle ratio. A 50.2% freight share and 49.8% available vehicle capacity in the European transport market suggests a ratio very close to the theoretical optimum. However, this quarter also demonstrated a high level of fluctuation and the beginning of the quarter was a surprise. 

The second quarter ended without any immense fluctuations and a balanced freight and vehicle ratio was a profound basis for the third quarter. Due to the summer and holiday season in most European countries, many experts expected a decrease in the freight share on the transport market.  But things turned out differently. In July, TimoCom had a freight to vehicle ratio of 51:49. A higher freight than available vehicle share in the month of July occurred last time whole four years ago in 2011.


Positive end of year expectations

In August, the TimoCom's transport barometer could not keep up this development. At the end of the month the freight to vehicle ratio was 45:55. This meant a stronger decrease in comparison to the same period in the previous year (from 47% to 44% in 2014). In the opinion of TimoCom's Chief Representative Marcel Frings this development was foreseeable, "A decrease of six percentage points from July to August this year is very disproportionate. The same period in the previous years showed a smaller decrease of only one to three percentage points. Another distinct difference: Characteristically, the years with a freight surplus in July had a stronger decrease. For instance, 2011 had a twelve percentage point decrease.


The first week of September indicated how the end of the third quarter would develop. The freight offers in the European transport market increased by four percentage points and it kept its course. In the end of September, TimoCom's transport barometer ended with a freight to vehicle ratio of 55:45.

The result was another, albeit slight, freight surplus in the third quarter. The last time two successive quarters ended with such a result was two years ago. Marcel Frings is expecting another surprise in the last quarter of 2015 as well. "It remains to be seen whether the current refugee situation will have an impact on the economy and on the transport industry in particular. How much influence will border controls have on the road transport? How will the concern and aid for the refugees affect politics? These are important issues for the next weeks and months. However, the expectations for the fourth quarter are remaining positive. I believe the "golden autumn" will be similar to the same period in 2013. This implies an October filled with plenty of freight. In November, I dare predict that it will develop very similar as July did which indicates a freight share of over 50% again."


Regardless of how the results of last months of 2015 will end it is worth noticing the remarkably high fluctuations in the freight share. They counted up to 28 percentage points and this clearly shows the TimoCom transport barometer as being highly volatile this year. This volatile percentage statistic also represents an enormous growth in the freight offers and available vehicle capacity in the first three quarters of this year. Until now, the number of offers entered in the TimoCom freight and vehicle exchange has increased by about 18%.

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