The transport barometer: Minor freight backlog in the second quarter

The Spring months had more freight to be transported than the beginning of the year.


Erkrath, Germany, 2016-07-27 - The TimoCom transport barometer shows a slight freight backlog for the European transport market in the second quarter of 2016. In the Spring months, TimoCom had a freight to vehicle ratio of 52:48. However, there were distinct fluctuations within individual months.

After a weak beginning for the year, the transport industry finally hit the engine and got up to speed at the end of the first quarter. The question remained whether or not the market could keep up the positive development in the second quarter.


Spring freight roller-coaster

The current figures speak for themselves: The predicted upswing resulted in a freight to vehicle ratio that is almost equal. In April, the freight volume was 49%, a whole of 16 percentage points more than in March. However, this was still weak in comparison to earlier years: The freight volume in 2015 was 53%, in 2014 54%. Unfortunately, the encouraging trend in March was not enough for numbers in April to match the previous years. 

But it was not to stay that way: The transport barometer pushed itself to the limit and increased its freight volume by 10 percentage points in May, reaching the highpoint not just of the quarter, but of the year, with 59% freight share. TimoCom's Chief Representative Marcel Frings knows why: "The rise is caused by the many long weekends and the associated short working weeks in the holiday month.  The freight forwarders have had a shorter amount of time to transport the goods to the customer. 

However, the peak did not last long. The freight percentage fell by 11 points in June, and sat at 48%, one point below the beginning of the quarter. June was also weak in comparison with earlier years: The freight volume in 2015 was equalised at 50%, in 2014 there was a slight backlog of 51%.

However, a look at the absolute numbers shows that in total, more offers were entered in the TimoCom transport platform than was the case in previous years.


Calm seas ahead

Despite uneven developments over the individual months, in total in the second quarter, 52% freight volume were met with 48% vehicle capacity. Overall, there was much more freight in the Spring months than at the beginning of the year. 

But how does the second half of the year look for the transport industry? "Predictions for the upcoming months have to be looked at on a country by country basis. According to the ifo business forecast, a rise in investment and consumer spending in Germany will increase economic growth and boost the transport industry.

Not only that, the economic situation in Germany continues to be evaluated very positively, while the situation in Italy, Portugal, Spain, Austria and France is unfortunately getting worse. As for the effects of Brexit, it is still hard to say. The referendum result was an unexpected shock, and the actual consequences cannot yet be predicted" says Frings.

TimoCom staff assume that July, August and September will be quieter, as they were last year, and that freight will once again surpass the vehicle capacity in Autumn.

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