10 Theses on Safety and Future Prospects in European Road Freight Transport 2026

1. Cybersecurity in Road Freight: The Underestimated Threat Becomes an Industry-Wide Priority

Digitalisation has also increased the risk of cyberattacks in the UK road freight sector. In particular, criminal methods such as phishing, identity theft and so-called “phantom hauliers” have become increasingly prevalent in the UK logistics market, according to UK industry bodies, insurers and law-enforcement agencies. These forms of fraud intensified throughout 2024 and 2025, driven by higher volumes of digital freight matching and cross-border transport following Brexit.

The targets can vary: from ransomware attacks and payment fraud to the theft of sensitive company data or entire consignments. UK security experts warn that this trend is likely to intensify further in 2026, as criminals increasingly exploit AI-generated emails, fake websites and deepfake communication techniques. With the help of AI, fraudulent methods are becoming more sophisticated, scalable and harder to detect.

Communication with unfamiliar or newly onboarded transport partners is considered particularly high-risk in the UK market, especially when initial contact takes place exclusively via email. Email communication carries significant risks, as it is vulnerable to phishing, spoofing and content manipulation. In many documented UK cases, attacks originate from compromised or impersonated email accounts that appear legitimate at first glance. At TIMOCOM, we therefore recommend you to use our official communication channels when working with other companies. Use the TIMOCOM Messenger and confirm transactions only on the TIMOCOM Road Freight Marketplace with a Deal or Transport Order.

2. Driver and Skilled Labour Shortage: Artificial Intelligence Lends a Hand

Alongside security, staffing remains one of the biggest challenges. Across Europe, there is a dramatic shortage of qualified lorry drivers and dispatchers. The IRU reports around 3.6 million unfilled driver positions worldwide, with over 420,000 in Europe alone. The average age of approximately 44.5 years and only around 6.5% under 25 years will exacerbate the problem. The TIMOCOM Road Freight Marketplace recorded a decline of about 12% in available cargo space in 2024, and up to October 2025, there were a further 4.5% fewer lorries on offer – a clear indication of shrinking transport capacities. New technological possibilities such as AI Agents and Voicebots will increasingly enter and be deployed in logistics and road freight transport in 2026, including for the automated negotiation of freight offers and transport prices. AI will support personnel and thus compensate for missing resources, but will not yet take over the driver’s cab.

Read more about the UK HGV shortage

3. Autonomous Driving: The USA Pushes Ahead While Europe Remains Confined to Closed Factory Environments

In 2026, autonomous driving will gain significant momentum in the USA – especially on defined, recurring routes between distribution centres or production sites. Clear regulatory frameworks, open test corridors, and a high degree of automation in logistics infrastructure accelerate practical deployment there. In contrast, in Europe, autonomous driving remains largely confined to company-owned premises and non-public roads. Stricter approval procedures, fragmented legal jurisdictions, and high safety requirements slow down development. Because the environment is so challenging, the leading start-up for autonomous driving in Europe recently withdrew from the logistics sector and turned to the defence industry. Here, there appear to be sufficient financial resources for further development. We are unlikely to see a market-ready civilian truck driving autonomously on public roads in Europe in the coming years.

4. Capacity Shortage Slows Recovery: A Vicious Cycle of Inefficiencies

The capacity shortage in road freight transport results from structural inflexibility. Rigid time windows, prohibitions on backloads, and inflexible ramp processes prevent efficient utilisation of existing fleets. These structures originate from the buyer’s market of past decades and now hinder efficiency and growth. Greater flexibility in planning and execution could release more capacity, optimise routes, and ease road congestion. Without adjustment, an economic upswing risks creating a vicious circle: as demand rises, more lorries take to the roads, leading to increased traffic, congestion, and longer journey times – which in turn requires additional capacity. Efficiency arises from better organisation – not from more vehicles. Therefore, trading and industrial companies should consider introducing greater flexibility in their delivery and pickup time frames, as well as in rules such as backload prohibitions. These complicate route planning and prevent efficient utilisation of the existing fleet, which is essential for the survival of transport companies. This vicious circle currently appears halted due to economic stagnation. In 2026, it will once again have a noticeable impact on supply chains.

5. Bankruptcies due to High Costs: Small Carriers Particularly at Risk

Under intense cost pressure, many small transport companies had to cease operations in 2025. According to Creditreform Rating, the transport and logistics sector is particularly affected by credit defaults. The market consolidation in the European transport industry will continue in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. Insolvencies in road freight transport will continue to be driven by high personnel, energy, and operating costs. Small and medium-sized carriers with limited capital reserves and a restricted network are especially affected. Many cannot offset increased fixed costs despite stable transport prices, as larger forwarding companies increasingly take on direct orders and spot market shares. Added to this are stricter ESG and compliance requirements, which cause additional bureaucracy and costs. The result: further market consolidation, declining transport capacities, and rising freight rates – a structural bottleneck that weakens the competitiveness of European logistics.

6. Rising Transport Prices: A Drastic Shift in the Balance of Power

The shortage of personnel inevitably leads to bottlenecks, increased demand for the remaining capacities, and thus higher costs. TIMOCOM reported in autumn 2025 an increase in spot market prices of around 8% compared to the previous year. Energy prices and CO₂ levies exert additional pressure on tariffs, alongside seasonal peaks in transport. The gap between customer prices and the counteroffers from service providers is no longer as wide. The spot market prices at which shippers find a transport service provider can be well estimated. The shift from a buyer’s to a seller’s market has long since taken place; nevertheless, competition among service providers for the most lucrative orders will continue and lead to fluctuations in prices. Overall, however, they are expected to remain at the current level.

7. Energy Prices and Contract Security: Volatile Conditions Persist

Despite numerous uncertainties, diesel and energy prices in 2025 remained comparatively stable and slightly below the previous year's average. A temporary price spike in June due to geopolitical conflicts demonstrated the ongoing volatility. The subsequent decline provided short-term relief, but economic and political crises can quickly push prices back up. Against this backdrop, price variables, diesel floaters, and flexible contract models will also be key risk mitigation tools in 2026. At the same time, the increased CO₂ price as well as electricity and gas prices are putting pressure on margins, especially for freight forwarders with long-term framework agreements. In 2026, contract security will become a competitive factor – companies that do not flexibilise their contract models risk margin and competitive losses.

8. Electrification in Road Freight Gains Momentum, Hydrogen Loses Ground, HVO remains a Bridging Technology

2026 marks the transition from the pilot phase to the gradual integration of alternative drives. Road freight transport will move significantly towards battery-electric drives. In the coming year, electric trucks over 12t will still be used in regional distribution traffic as well as on scheduled round trips. In classic national and international road freight transport – so-called tramp traffic – these vehicles will not yet be used due to a lack of infrastructure. Hydrogen is losing relevance as an alternative drive technology – mainly due to the lack of refuelling infrastructure, high costs, and lower energy efficiency.

At the same time, many transport companies are relying on paraffinic alternative fuels such as HVO100 to achieve short-term CO₂ reduction targets. The use of synthetic e-fuels, on the other hand, remains a niche solution for the time being, as production capacities and availability in Europe continue to be limited.

9. Rail Transport Stagnates, Combined Transport Returns to Square One

The shift of traffic to rail is stagnating across Europe. Road freight transport will therefore remain dominant in 2026 as well. According to a survey by the Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility (BALM), numerous companies stated that poorly coordinated construction sites, capacity bottlenecks in the rail network, and insufficient terminal infrastructure are the main reasons why combined transport is not growing further. Another issue is that the loading processes for non-craneable trailers vary greatly or are not in place at all. Added to this are bottlenecks in the terminals and limited corridor capacities, which prevent significant growth impulses. Furthermore, the EU Commission has withdrawn the directive for combined transport after almost two years of negotiations. So, we are almost back to square one here. It is expected that rail transport will continue to suffer and decline in 2026.

10. Bureaucracy remains high as AI Agents support dispatchers

Many transport companies spend more time on documentation, compliance obligations, CO₂ reporting and permits than on the actual service. Media discontinuities, duplicate data entry, lack of standards and unclear responsibilities make everyday life even more difficult. Bureaucracy is growing, but processes, systems and resources are not growing at the same pace. It would be naive to assume that despite commendable initiatives to reduce bureaucracy, even one requirement will be eliminated by 2026. Therefore, transport associations in particular must advocate for the creation of central, barrier-free access to data pools across Europe in the long term. Until then, the main challenge will be to develop intelligent solutions such as AI agents capable of gathering, evaluating and documenting the necessary data from numerous sources.

Conclusion: Security and Connectivity as the Foundation for Success

European road freight transport is undergoing a dynamic transformation: alongside the ongoing driver shortage, rising prices and insolvencies are troubling the industry. But above all, the challenges of digitalisation, such as the increasing threat of cybercrime, demand new standards for operations. Independent, digital platforms in road freight transport will increasingly play a crucial role here. This is especially true for the predominantly small and medium-sized enterprises, for whom proprietary technical solutions involve high costs and personnel effort.

Established and independent platforms are more than just market access points: they provide security mechanisms such as strict authentication procedures, continuous monitoring, and encrypted communication, acting as a safety network in a complex digital world. Vigilance and critical assessments of new service providers should nevertheless be maintained. Risks can be minimised, but completely eliminating them is hardly possible in the volatile and rapidly changing digital world. Those who use modern tools and understand IT security as a strategic task are setting the course for sustainable success today.

More background information with figures, data and facts is available to interested parties here for download.